Weekend Joe: “Crime” and the National Guard
- frastecon
- Oct 11
- 5 min read
Here I come again with those pesky facts. I have been looking at the President’s deployment of National Guard troops in LA, Washington, DC and (soon) Chicago.
There are several “costs” associated with these invasions that should not be ignored. Let’s also take a look at Trump’s claims about crime rates. It can charitably be said that he cherry-picks his data. The plain truth is he lies—repeatedly.
I looked at several statistical summaries of US cities with the highest per capita crime rates. (“Per capita” is the most accurate measure. For example, Chicago will have more crimes than St Louis, but the difference in total population in those cities means St Louis could have a higher crime rate—defined as more crimes per 100,000 citizens.) Since data from crime reporting services can vary slightly, I am extrapolating from the aggregated data to summarize trends.
Crime Data
Cities With Highest Crime Rates (in no particular order)
Detroit
Memphis
Baltimore
St Louis
Cleveland
Milwaukee
New Orleans
Birmingham. Alabama
Little Rock, Arkansas
Washington, DC
Another statistical summary of 2024 showed violent crime that includes murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, rape, robbery and aggravated assault as follows (again the data is based on crimes per 100,000 citizens):
Memphis, Tennessee: 2,501
Detroit: 1,781
Baltimore: 1,606
Kansas City, Missouri: 1,547
Milwaukee: 1,431
Albuquerque, New Mexico: 1,182
Houston: 1,148
Nashville: 1,124
Denver: 993
Washington: 926
Chicago and Los Angeles did not appear in any of the listings I reviewed. Washington was on average in the bottom half of the top ten lists.
A Historical Perspective
In general, crime rates across the US had been declining for years before the COVID pandemic. Crimes jumped significantly in 2021 and 2022 and then began to fall again. USA Today observed that “in the District of Columbia, different types of crime tend to be concentrated in different parts of the city, and crime overall has been on a downward trend in recent years. The murder rate is far below its historic peak.”
According to TIME, Trump’s move on D.C. comes just months after the Department of Justice announced that violent crime in the city hit a 30-year low, and was down 35% in 2024 from the year before.
Chicago’s murder rate is down 31%, shootings are down 36%, and carjackings are down 50% in 2025 compared to 2024 through August. Chicago has also had the second fewest murders through August since 1965 and the fewest shooting victims in decades.
Homicides in Los Angeles decreased 14% in 2024 compared to 2023. Aggravated Assaults, rapes, and burglaries all decreased in 2024 compared to 2023.
I draw a few conclusions from this data:
> Trump and the Republicans can lie without blinking
> The cities Trump is targeting are led by men and women of color
> The data clearly shows Trump should be targeting cities in red states
> This is about theater, not crime
> The large majority of arrests is Washington and LA are people ICE is pursuing
Cost of National Guard Intervention
While daily costs estimates vary, CNN pegs the ongoing National Guard mission in Washington, DC, as part of President Donald Trump’s crime crackdown in the city, at roughly $1 million a day. Other rough calculations show the mission is likely costing more than $1 million a day, when taking into account the pay for more than 2,200 National Guard troops deployed, housing, travel, food, fuel, and other logistical needs. That estimate is drawn from costs from the 2020 mobilization of roughly 5,000 National Guardsmen to DC, which was estimated to cost more than $2 million a day.
The Pentagon was able to give a cost estimate for the LA mission in June just three days after roughly 4,000 Guardsmen were mobilized to assist law enforcement. “The current estimated cost is $134 million which is largely just (temporary duty) cost, travel, housing, food, etc.,” Bryn MacDonnell, a special assistant to the secretary of defense and official performing the duties of the under secretary of defense, told Congress on June 10. President Donald Trump signed a memorandum mobilizing the first batch of 2,000 Guardsmen on June 7th.
President Donald Trump's deployment of the Washington, DC, National Guard to patrol national monuments, pick up trash and shovel mulch in its home city is projected to cost taxpayers $201 million – more than $1.8 million a day, according to internal budget information seen by USA TODAY.
Relating National Guard Deployment Costs to Other Metrics
According to another internal cost estimate of more than $1.8 million a day, In all but two states, the daily cost of the D.C. troop deployment is greater than the daily cost of operating public housing for all unhoused people in the state. In most cases, the disparity is many times greater. For example, the daily expense of deploying troops to D.C. is 4.3 times greater than the daily cost of operating public housing for D.C’s entire unhoused population.
So, What’s the Return on this Investment?
In a disaster response (like Helene), the ROI is obvious. The Guard saves lives, restores order, and prevents catastrophic losses.
In civil unrest, their presence helps stabilize communities and protect property.
But for general crime prevention, the benefits are less certain. Research suggests that while a surge in policing or Guard presence may temporarily suppress crime, the effect often disappears once the deployment ends, with crime shifting to other areas or returning later.
Is this the Best Investment for any US City?
If the goal is long-term crime reduction, $30 million per month might be better invested elsewhere:
Strengthening local police departments with training and resources.
The average police pay in Washington, D.C. for 2024 was approximately $85,000 per year. This figure can vary based on rank, experience, and specific assignments.
Average police pay in Chicago for 2025 is $66,000.
Given Trump’s latest threat to keep the National Guard in DC until the end of the year, the cumulative cost would fund the addition of 2,250 more police for a year.
The economics of National Guard policing in Chicago (no estimate of number of troops or number of days of deployment) makes it difficult to make an accurate estimate of the number of police that could be added to the Chicago PD. It is safe to say more trained police can make a substantial difference in crime rates in the city.
It has also been suggested that expanding community programs that address root causes of crime and funding infrastructure and education initiatives that build opportunity and stability will positively impact crime rates.
These measures don’t create the same workforce disruption or hidden economic costs associated with National Guard deployments. They do contribute to stronger, more resilient communities.
I have not addressed the constitutional, societal and social issues that are the main objections to using National Guard deployments in our communities. No one should take those ramifications lightly. They are an extremely dangerous threat to our democracy.
To me, examining the financial issues does allow us to speculate how we can address the crime rates in the US with a relatively small investment. Donald Trump is incapable of making such simple calculations. He cares nothing about crime rates or finding a path to safer cities. He is driven solely by his thirst for vengeance and unlimited power.
Weekend Joe
Joe Elliott
Carolann Connor
Tom Abram
🗳 Call to Action
📣 Don’t feel helpless. You have your voice and your vote. Join us on October 18 at 10 AM in front of the new courthouse on Grove Street. The No Kings Rally will walk peacefully (fully protected by HVL Police Department) to the Old Courthouse for speakers and music. The parade will then return to our starting point. If you are not up to the walk then gather at the Old Courthouse and wait for the rest of us. Signs are most welcome.
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